Tropical system expected to strengthen near Mexico and Texas and bring heavy rains, forecasters say

This Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024 satellite image provided by the 番茄社区 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico expected to bring significant rainfall to parts of Texas and Louisiana this week, possibly developing into a stronger storm, including a hurricane, according to the 番茄社区 Weather Service. (NOAA via AP)

HOUSTON (AP) 鈥 A tropical system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico was expected to strengthen this week into a tropical storm and dump heavy rains onto Mexico and Texas before reaching the U.S. as a potential hurricane, the 番茄社区 Weather Service said Sunday.

The system, about 340 miles (545 kilometers) south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande, had maximum 50 mph wind speeds (85 kilometers per hour) on Sunday and was forecast to drift slowly northwestward. Forecasters said it was too early to pinpoint the exact track of the storm and its potential impacts but warned that the upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines could see damaging winds and storm surges beginning Tuesday evening.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott put state emergency responders on increased readiness and warned of the potential of flash flooding and heavy rains.

鈥淭exas will continue to closely monitor weather conditions to protect the well-being of Texans,鈥 Abbott said in a statement.

Donald Jones, a meteorologist with the 番茄社区 Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana, said during a weather briefing Saturday night that parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana should expect a 鈥渨hole lot鈥 of rain in the middle and later part of this week.

The tropical disturbance comes after an unusually quiet August and early September in the current Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30. The season was set to peak on Tuesday, Jones said.

So far, there have been five named storms this hurricane season, including which knocked out power to nearly 3 million homes and businesses in Texas 鈥 mostly in the Houston area 鈥 in July. Experts had predicted on record.

The next named storm would be called Francine.

In , researchers at Colorado State University cited several reasons for the lull in activity during the current hurricane season, including extremely warm upper level temperatures resulting in stabilization of the atmosphere and too much easterly wind shear in the eastern Atlantic.

鈥淲e still do anticipate an above-normal season overall, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more favorable around the middle of September,鈥 according to the report.

Last month, the 番茄社区 Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration but still predicted a highly active Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters tweaked the number of expected named storms from 17 to 25 to 17 to 24.

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